Sahuarita, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

058
FXUS65 KTWC 260727
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1227 AM MST Tue May 26 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Warm with dry conditions across Southeast Arizona
today into early next week. An abnormally cool upper-low will
make its way into central California the middle of this week,
resulting in afternoon temperatures between 3 and 6 degrees
below normal across Southeast Arizona Wednesday and Thursday,
with even cooler readings 10 to 14 degrees below normal across
far western Pima county. This system will also bring breezy to
locally windy conditions across much of area Wednesday and
Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The upper pattern across the region early this
morning is defined by an upper low over NRN Arizona with an
upper-low center near the Petrified Forest National Park moving
NNE and a strong upper-low moving south along the Pacific
Northwest coastline.

Expect the upper-low over NRN AZ to continue to rapidly eject
NNE today as the second aforementioned feature digs into the
Great Basin by 27/12Z Wednesday morning. A secondary lobe
rotating into the mean trough will allow this feature to dig
into central California by 28/00Z Wednesday afternoon. This is
an anomalously strong upper-low which should bring cooler
temperatures into CA and even as far east as southwest Arizona.
In fact, western Pima county will see afternoon readings in the
lower-to-mid 80s Wednesday and Thursday, which is approximately
10-14 degrees below normal for this time of year. Cooling is
moderated the farther east you go (away from the upper-low)
across our CWA. Tucson will see temperatures in the lower 90s,
approximately 3 to 6 degrees below normal. The most impactful
aspect of this upper-low will be breezy SWLY winds 15 to 25 mph
with gusts to 35 mph, especially from Tucson west. The cooler
temperatures will keep minimum RHS above critical levels across
far western Pima county (western fire weather zone 150), but
conditions will be elevated or near-critical to the east,
especially the eastern portions of fire weather zone 150 and
zone 151. Not a slam dunk pattern by any stretch of the
imagination since the winds are lighter as you go east of
Tucson where the minimum RHs will be solidly below 15 percent.

Otherwise, the pattern gets a little interesting as we move
through the weekend and into early next week. Ensembles of the
GEFS and ECMWF are both trending toward a solution of a strong
ridge building into the Desert Southwest neat Monday transitioning
up toward the Four Corners region next Wednesday. There is
still plenty of uncertainty amongst the models...but if this
comes to fruition, it would draw surface and mid-level moisture
into the eastern portions of our forecast area behind southeast
winds resulting in a chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
Although it seems a tad early for a Monsoon pattern, its not
uncommon for occasional increases in moisture to temporarily
make their way into Southeast Arizona in early June before
sputtering and drying out again.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 27/12Z. Generally SKC through the
forecast period with the exception of FEW-SCT 9k-11k ft AGL
northeast of Tucson near KSAD between 26/21Z and 27/02Z. SFC
winds light and terrain driven less than 10 kts through 26/19Z
this afternoon, then SWLY 10-14 kts with gusts to 25 kts.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Warm with dry conditions across Southeast Arizona
into early next week. An abnormally cool upper-low will make
its way into central California the middle of this week,
resulting in below normal across Southeast Arizona Wednesday
and Thursday. This system will also bring breezy to locally
windy 20-foot winds from the southwest 15 to 20 mph with gusts
to 35 mph. This will result in elevated to near-critical fire
weather conditions Wednesday and Thursday, especially across
the eastern portions of fire weather zone 150 and zone 151. Min
RH values will be in the 7-18 percent range in the valleys and
in the 14-20 percent range in the mountains through next week.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

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